Kamala Harris Has Eight Point Lead Over Trump in National Poll

Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Donald Trump in a new national poll, leading the former president by 8 points.
The new poll, conducted by Bullfinch between August 19 and 21, shows Harris on 47 percent of the vote to Trump’s 39 percent among registered voters when third party candidates are included. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of : ± 3.1 percent.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
It is only the second time a national poll has shown Harris with an 8-point lead over her opponent after a Marquette poll on July 31 showed the vice president on 50 percent of the vote to Trump’s 42 percent among likely voters in a matchup with third party candidates.
Since Biden ended his re-election campaign, making Harris the candidate, the polls have looked positive for the Democrats, with Harris consistently ahead of her opponent since July 26.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, she now has a 3.6-point lead over Trump nationally—her largest polling average over Trump yet.
But as we move closer to the November election, Harris’ position in the polls could change if third party candidates drop out of the race.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is expected to drop out of the race on Friday, according to reports, after withdrawing from the ballot in Arizona on Thursday following a dip in the polls.
“Third-party candidates often lose steam as the election approaches, but Kennedy’s trajectory has been particularly ignominious. In three-way polls against Biden and Trump, he initially polled at 10 or 11 percent, then gradually faded to 8 (save for a bounce just after Biden’s awful debate). In the Trump-Harris matchup, though, he’s dropped to about 4 percent,” pollster Nate Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Kennedy is currently polling at 4.7 percent.
Throughout the election cycle, state and national polls have shown that when third party candidates are included, Kennedy Jr. takes more votes from Trump than Harris.
For example, a Fox News survey of 1,034 Pennsylvania voters conducted between July 22 and 24, showed that 10 percent of Trump’s two-way supporters chose someone else when third party candidates were included, while only 7 percent of Harris supporters selected a different candidate.
Meanwhile, analysis by NBC revealed that a Kennedy withdrawal would probably help Trump more than it hurts him, putting Harris’ lead in the polls at risk.
National NBC News polls have shown that more Republicans like Kennedy Jr. than Democrats do. For example, in January, Kennedy held net-positive ratings from Republicans (+18) and independents (+4), while Democrats viewed him mostly negatively (-25).
In NBC’s July poll, the divide was starker, with his approval rating among Democrats dropping to -38 points.
“Trump has a real incentive to get Kennedy out of the race,” David B. Cohen, professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, told Newsweek earlier this month.
Kennedy Jr. is expected to endorse Trump when he drops out, according to ABC News.
However, when asked directly by ABC News if he will be endorsing the former president, Kennedy said: “I will not confirm or deny that.”
Newsweek has contacted representatives of Kennedy Jr. for comment.